Reporting to the US Forecasting Lead, the US Forecasting Manager will play a key support role in developing and communicating US forecasts across 5 Shire franchises and numerous inline and pipeline products. The Forecasting Manager will review existing forecast methodologies and help develop recommendations around a Shire best practice for multiple types of therapies (e.g., specialty, rare, oncology). Individual will liaise with key stakeholders in marketing, finance, patient services, and market access to ensure the latest thinking is incorporated into each product’s forecasting assumptions and signed off by respective owners. Manager will play a role in presenting forecast results at key planning sessions such as budget planning, current year planning, long range planning and supply/manufacturing & TechOps reviews.
Forecasting Manager will possess a strong combination of technical, problem solving, communication, and interpersonal skills.
% of Time
Job Function and Description
Forecasting tool development and maintenance.
Manager will help assess existing forecasting models across 5 franchises, and prioritize areas for improvement. Manager will design and build improved tools (with or without support from vendors) to meet customized needs of each franchise, using 80/20 approach focusing on critical needs first. Balance of standardization and customization will be sought.
Forecast updates and reviews.
Forecasting Manager will refresh models with latest actuals at the product or patient level as they become available. Manager must be comfortable with various types of sales audit data such as NDTI, NSP, NPA, Xponent, as well as patient hub (within Shire) and specialty pharmacy (SP) data. Individual will also work closely with franchise teams and other stakeholders to incorporate latest thinking in forecast assumptions such as launch timing, patent expiry, and competitive entry. These assumptions will be used to create most likely forecast, a key input to various commercial and financial planning exercises such as monthly latest views (LVs), annual budgets, and long-range planning (LRP). Manager will oversee repository of product forecasts and help create simple, standardized output tools for fast, clear communication to key stakeholders. Manager will also play a role in official forecast readouts with senior management.
In addition to regular forecast updates and reviews Manager will assist Lead in responding to ad hoc scenario requests related to business development and other strategic initiatives.
Product performance tracking.
Manager will work with Lead to identify fit-for-purpose tracking techniques for each product and franchise as needed. Individual will work with other functions such as Commercial Operations to ensure tracking needs are met, while synergies are leveraged and redundancies are minimized.
Education and Experience Requirements
4+ years of business experience in the Pharmaceutical and/or Biotech industry with substantial experience in business analysis and forecasting; extensive knowledge of secondary research methodologies and Pharma industry databases. Understanding of relevant data sets (claims, national/subnational IMS, patient services, etc.). Additional industry experience in product development, marketing and sales considered a plus. Experience in a matrix business environment also a plus.
Key Skills, Abilities, and Competencies
Interpersonal and Technical
- Strong interpersonal skills with the ability to liaise with multiple business partners
- Self-confidence, initiative and ability to work independently in order to meet deadlines
- Advanced technical skills in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint.
- Familiarity with forecasting software such as Forecast Pro, Crystal Ball, @Risk, etc.
Complexity and Problem Solving
- Objective, critical thinking with focus on getting to the right answer, in a clear, concise way
- Strong attention to detail, and the ability to “sense check” numbers prior to review w/stakeholders
- Identifies important trends and makes recommendations
- Is able prioritize in the face of competing demands
Builds the Narrative
- Identifies the proper visual way to depict data to support and articulate message
- States and clarifies assumptions
- Ability to move from ground level to 30K feet, articulating the “so what” behind the numbers
- Contributes to breakthrough solutions
- Draws on unexpected or seemingly unrelated ways of thinking
- Operates from a framework of possibility
- Supports creation of a best-in-class forecasting function.
Internal and External Contacts
Internal: US Commercial Leadership, Franchise Finance Business Partners, Market Insights & Analytics Teams, Commercial Operations, Global Product Strategy (GPS), GPS Finance, Supply Chain, Regulatory, Tech Ops and Legal
External: Data suppliers; external forecasting, market research, and competitive intelligence consultants
Other Job Requirements
US Travel: 5-10%
Location/Region: Lexington, MA